There were so many quotes that were running through my mind when I first started writing this piece, but then I thought the following suited it the best-

Politics is the guiding light of economics…

I do not know who said this but I think it’s very correct.

At the outset, I should also mention I have absolutely nothing against populism. In fact, swallowing two populist budgets in the space of 3 days was a pleasure.

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On the 29th of February, as the nation looked forward for the government’s yearly public expenditure agenda, the finance minister, Mr. Chidambaram, presented an all-please budget. He was only the second finance minister to have the honour of presenting five successive budgets on behalf of the UPA government.

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The dawn of a new year ushered in the two most revolutionary and inevitably debatable budgets, of all ages. First to sketch new dimensions for the Indian railways, the nation was witness to some of the most astounding offers in a long time. Shri Lalu Prasad Yadav has scripted yet another awe-inspiring and money-generating rail budget.

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Indian policymakers, in 1950, began with two main objectives for the economic planning process, firstly, increasing productivity and secondly, reducing inequalities. These were reiterated a week ago when a bespectacled Palaniappan Chidambaram in his trademark veshti read out a not-so-trademark-Chidambaram budget for the next fiscal. Though termed an election stunt, it is a sound mix of politics and economics.

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As the Budget 2008 unfolded itself, a general sense of optimism spread around. This was the election year and PC couldn’t get it wrong. The Budget had something for everyone. The Indian farmers were given Rs 60,000 crores of loan write-off, the salaried class got huge tax breaks and the small businesses were given ample growth and saving options. All this is courtesy P. Chidambaram.

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It is that time of the year when the politicians in the high seat of power, with money in their briefcases, decide where to spend the tax payer’s moolah for the welfare of the country. Calls have already been made, loudly and vociferously, for a populist budget with the further development of rural India as the focal point of the session. The leaders of the UPA have, for once, rallied together, and asked Finance Minister P Chidambaram for the move, and it is likely, considering the fact that the markets are remaining bullish even after the short recession, that their wish will be granted.

Apart from the obvious, though, a populist budget built around the rural agro based industry might be a shift from the progress graph of the UPA government. Also, with a greater standing in the world at stake, the Indian finance ministry cannot risk further recession of the market, by not supporting the power that is driving the economy.

Let us take a peek at what our folks up in Washington D.C. are doing about their budget plans. The President of the United States, George W. Bush has presented his request for the budget plans of 2009 and it revolves largely around social welfare. Obviously, being a market-driven economy, the constant warring that the government undertakes, the focus of the government is to increase the piece of the budget pie for defence operations. This is Bush’s last budget before leaving the office, and it is one that undercuts the social privileges of the people in a big way.

The emphasis on the housing and safety of the homeless and the protection of women from violence, both basic, yet important factors in the country’s standard of living, have been undermined in the President’s request, and his suggestions are likely to be inculcated in the budget for the fiscal year 2009, although the Republicans will be given hell, by their Democratic opponents. There has been a request, though, to oppose the cuts given to some of the housing and safety net programmes, but an alternative has been provided, where the people have been requested to report to their local representatives for welfare.

Congress likely will add to the president’s military construction budget, which included $6.9 million for new construction at the Naval Construction Battalion Center in Gulfport and $8.1 million for a child development center at Columbus Air Force Base.

Bush, however, would freeze spending on many social programs, despite inflation and greater demand spurred by a growth in population and a faltering economy.

To pay for his priorities, Bush proposed trimming $196 billion from Medicare and Medicaid programs over the next five years.

“We are having a hard time making ends meet as it is,” said Francis Rullan, spokesman for the Mississippi Division of Medicaid. “Any cut in Medicaid would not be good for Mississippi.”

The state has a projected deficit of $91 million for Medicaid - the state and federal health care program for the poor and elderly - in its 2008 budget. There are a few more problems with the budget request, and the Homeland Security Budget is also under the scanner for the same.

The expected fights over the budget and Bush’s lame-duck status nearly guarantee that most of the work on the 2009 federal budget won’t be completed until a new president is in the White House.

Vineet Kanabar

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The Budget is back and yet again, it is one of the most anticipated events of the year. It is predicted that, this year, the Budget will give importance to various other spheres, which in the past have not been given much attention, but are among the top in the priority list this time.

India is a land of diverse cultures which are rooted deep in everyone’s heart. However, there are still many communities which are not getting their fair share of opportunities amidst all the development and progress in the country. Moreover, they are regarded as “minorities” and are ghettoized. Their interests are given least importance and they are remembered just prior to the elections as their votes help in turning tables towards the contesting party. The Government has made efforts to offer reservations to these minorities in some of the prestigious institutions of the country, but still, one can hardly see any change. A strong foundation of primary education should be built and incentives should be given to the minorities like books to study, and upgradation of existing educational infrastructure should be ensured. Scheduled castes, scheduled tribes are the minorities and onerous efforts are being made to bring change in their existing status.

This time the focal point of the Budget should lie in bringing change and doing something which has been long thought of, but never been implemented efficiently. There is no point in having a GDP of above 9% if it comes only from a handful of people and not the entire country. Earlier, commissions have been made for safeguarding the interests of the minorities, but no concrete steps have ever been taken. It is a sad state of affairs where rules are made on paper but seldom implemented. This time the peak challenge which lies in front of the Finance Minister, Mr. P. Chidambaram is to allot a Budget for uplifting this faction of the society.

In India, the Government never misses to play its game; the UPA Government in order to win the Muslim population’s hearts’ set up a welfare community for the minorities. Last year, the Budget allocated for tribal welfare was Rs.500 crores, and it needs to be incremented to a Rs. 1000 crores.

Another problem which needs deep pondering is the piteous conditions and the plight of the people living below poverty line which comprise a percentage of around 30% of the total population. This year the Government has decided to allocate a major part of the Union Budget to the up-gradation of this class. Poverty alleviation schemes in urban areas would get a major boost with allocations nearly doubling from Rs.500 crores to Rs. 1,000 crores.

Rural India constitutes a large chunk of minority population. The Ministry of Rural Development is likely to get Rs.20, 000 crores for the allocation of the flagship National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme. The Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment is likely to see a marginal increase from Rs. 2,000 crores to Rs.2, 200 crores in the Budget.

India expects a great Budget 2008 for all the sectors and classes of the society with the hope that everyone can prosper and grow, and an overall development can be recorded.

Ravi Agarwal

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The “Budget” would mean “taxes” to an ordinary individual, “tax treatment and sops” to the Corporate. It would mean “many” to the commodity market participants and the ecosystem, as most budgetary announcements, in one way or the other, affect the commodities ecosystem in terms of trading or pricing of commodities. Let us not forget here that each and every 1 billion-plus citizen of this country is a player in the commodities ecosystem, given the vast array of commodities traded on the exchange platforms. And this is the most unique property of commodities that makes it special!

This is one of the major reasons why an entire set of players in the commodities ecosystem keenly watches the budget process for the changes which it would bring into the ecosystem.

The exchanges play their part in stimulating liquidity in relevant commodities and educate the physical market participants on the benefits of participating on a futures platform. Yet, their participation is a function of their felt need/benefit of participation on the commodity futures platform. One of the ways it can be incentivized is by allowing them to set off their business profits that might be accrued to them against the losses that could occur in trading or, at least, allow them offset against the trading benefits. Further, it could also be beneficial if banks provide advances against those commodities whose future prices have already been locked in by the participants. This can be done through participation on the futures platform, at a concessional rate, taking reduced risk in such a transaction into consideration. Alternatively, banks, if allowed, can hedge such risks in commodity-based lending on the exchange platform and continue to lend the highest possible value at competitive rates.

An exchange discovers a fair ’scarcity price’ for commodities in advance with the right participation. Nevertheless, due to sheer financial requirements such as larger delivery size, daily ‘pay in’ and ‘pay out’ obligations, it could still be keeping marginalized sections of the ecosystem away from its platform. A significant portion of them would include the small and marginal farmers for whom these marketplaces have been set up. This should be worked out.

The media, through which information can be delivered, would vary from personalized modes of mobile and wired phones to public modes such as television, newspapers, and ticker boards to reach out to the last mile. The cost limitations in it can be better addressed by widening the reach of prices through government initiatives. Under such conditions, it is necessary that the government make a larger investment through the regulator, Forward Markets Commission (that SEBI is to stock market).

Further, the interpretation of prices emanating from the exchanges would become easier if there were no distortions by way of multiple local taxes/levies, which may not be clear to the participants. Any effort by the budget process to ensure uniform VAT structure across all the states of the country would go a long way in helping the farmers, traders, consumers across the country to infer the exchange-disseminated prices more correctly. It would make the exchange-disseminated prices more relevant to the stakeholders.

To make futures more relevant to all the participants, participation of banks and financial institutions is essential. This would generate liquidity in the market not only by encouraging participation of all sections of the ecosystem but also through generating large positions in the market to help large organizations, including the corporate, and the public sector institutions participate on the exchange platforms efficiently. This would also strengthen the fundamentals that are percolating into the trading floor. As the stock markets do, allowing banks and funds would also help commodity exchanges increase retail participation.

It is essential that we have a strong infrastructure to effectively liberalize the economy and yet remain globally competitive. The commodity exchanges and supporting agricultural infrastructure facilities in the supply chain of agricultural commodities are critical to the agricultural ecosystem. Thus, the development of such facilities is necessary to ensure overall development of the country’s agricultural and rural economy. Hence, to encourage infrastructural development in India, the Government has provided certain tax concessions to businesses engaged in infrastructural development activities.

Hence, to give impetus to the exchanges for proceeding with their plans faster and undertaking large-scale investments, exchanges and enterprises/undertakings engaged in the business of development of allied agricultural infrastructure should qualify for such tax benefits under a separate provision of the Act. Indirectly, it would lead to the development of agriculture and related infrastructure crucial for sustained economic growth of the economy.

Saurabh Sharma

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The Indian economy appears to have settled on a steady and high growth path in recent years. A boost in investment, strong industrial performance and modest inflation has helped not only in achieving growth, but also other associated business sentiments. The  growth of the Gross Domestic Product in excess of 8 percent has been achieved by the economy in only five years of recorded history. With up-coming elections, the Budget 2008 is expected to meet the concerns of the ‘Aam- Aadmi’. A step in the right direction would be to enhance the limits of specific tax-free allowances provided to individual salaried taxpayers. 

Currently, these limits are very low and have not been looked at in the light of the rising Cost of Living Index over the years. Other avenues for providing relief to a salaried taxpayer could be a deduction for the payment of life insurance premiums for dependent parents and the enhancement of specified investment limits (for availing deductions) such as life insurance premiums, provident funds, etc. Interestingly, a global personal taxation comparison survey undertaken by Mercer in 2007 identifies India as the least favorable economy in Asia with respect to personal tax rates. 

Over the years, the income tax slabs have been modified, but on each occasion, the impact has been minimal, since realignment, either has been negligible or has been accompanied by removal of other tax deductions. Hopefully, the Budget 2008 will address this issue. Like salaried taxpayers, Corporates, too, have their ‘wish list’ of expectations from the Budget. India’s corporate tax base rate is currently pegged at 30 percent, at par with the Asia Pacific average. 

However, surcharge, cess, Dividend Distribution Tax and Fringe Benefit Tax (FBT) actually raises the tax rate above the Asia Pacific average. India appears well on course for matching or even beating its federal fiscal deficit target for this financial year and pushing for an even smaller shortfall next year — thanks to the country’s rapid economic growth.

Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram delivers his annual budget on Feb. 29, the last full one of this administration. Analysts expect him to say he bettered a goal of cutting the federal deficit to 3.3 percent of GDP for the year to March 31 from 3.7 percent a year earlier.

However, this year’s target, enshrined in a four-year-old fiscal responsibility drive, excludes the deficits of state governments. If they were included, the overall shortfall would be 6.0 percent of GDP, economists estimate. It also ignores off-balance sheet items, such as oil bonds issued in lieu of raising government-set fuel prices to match global trends. With world oil prices rallying strongly and hitting records just this week, the government may have to issue more bonds in coming quarters.  

The main problem for the Finance Minister is low revenue, which has been decelerating the customs revenue growth. This further leads to the lowering of excise revenue. Therefore, while making the budget the Finance Minister will obviously be focusing on better mobilization of earnings through direct and service taxes. 

Nasscom addresses five issues in its pre-budget memorandum. Nasscom suggests the Government to: 

(1)Continue the Software Technology Park of India scheme up to 2010, 

(2) Liberalize the eligibility criteria for the scheme of Large Tax Payer Unit. According to the current benchmark, those companies will be eligible only who pay an amount of 10 crores or more as advance tax. 

(3) Inculcate some relevant provisions in the domestic laws so that an efficient mechanism or process for full tax credit can be provided. 

(4) Start a mechanism for the Advance Pricing Agreements on the issues like, transfer pricing to ensure high tax certainty. 

(5) Refund the service tax paid by the companies on the services used for exporting BPO applications and computer softwares.

Tamal Roy

(1 votes, average: 5 out of 5)

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Being the most keenly anticipated time of the year, the Budget plays a decisive role in mapping the road of the following fiscal year of the country. Taking a rather amateur-ish stance we all have certain expectations and suggestions for the Budget. With due respect to the Budget ,to be presented by the Finance Minister, Mr  P. Chidambaram, and without much adieu let me enunciate my wish list.

India, with its current GDP growth rate, should continue to focus on sustained economic growth. However, policy measures to reduce income and sectoral inequalities should be adopted to justify the growth rates. Besides, human development indices should be used as a measure of development in the state. The financial allocation for the health sector as a percentage of GDP should be increased from the current 5%. The funds thus appropriated should be utilized for reducing the incidence of malnutrition, mortality and communicable diseases (which result from poor sanitation and environment conditions) and improved maternal and old age care. Greater resources should be allocated for research and development in the health sector. Also, mandatory health insurance for all citizens will cover the greater medical costs due to expensive treatment. An alternative to insurance cover can be the setting up of non profit organizations that link up with the hospitals to provide minimum cost treatments and subsidies as per the family per capita income. 

Apart from the health sector, in the field of education, the government must ensure a minimum number of schooling facilities within a radius of 5 kilometers to improve school enrolment numbers. However, minimum teaching quality standards must be maintained. There should be a greater number of vocational set ups throughout the country for the development of a minimum number of subsistence skills amongst the uneducated, physically and/or mentally handicapped population. In the same line of thought, provisions for setting up cooperatives and/or self help groups at the village level should be made to promote self sufficiency and employment prospects during the lean season. Thus, employment opportunities will be augmented.

In terms of climate change, greater emphasis should be laid on developing pollution-free alternative sources of energy. Organizations undertaking such research and development should be appropriately funded. Besides, higher taxes on exhaustive resources will help in controlling their rates of use. Government should undertake privatization of underperforming units besides improving the investment environment in the country. However, a certain degree of protection can be employed to protect domestic industries. Existing infrastructural facilities such as roads, transportation, and communications should be improved and finances allocated appropriately. 100% subsidies for farmers should be done away with. Electricity and water should be subsidized but with nominal charges. Besides, a greater number of rural financial facilities with flexible credit system must be set up. The tourism sector should be developed further and used to finance the government exchequer and/or local economic development.  Medical tourism should also be promoted.

In conclusion, the above mentioned suggestions will not bear fruit till they are effectively implemented by the government. However, a cost benefit analysis of the policies will prove helpful and ensure a successful financial year with balanced growth and development. 

Source: WHO Statistics.

             The Economic Times. 

Charulata Somal

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I hope you haven’t already started yawning on seeing the title of the article. I admit, the budget does not inspire much excitement among the youth mostly because of the complicated jargon used in it. But the Budget 2008-09 has got the whole nation debating about it.

The main cause for this excitement is the fact that it could be the last Budget presented by the present coalition Government which will be contesting the Lok Sabha elections later this year. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has had to face the wrath of its key allies (the Left) over the US nuclear deal. This makes it all the more important for P. Chidambaram not to deliver a Budget that might work against the interest of the UPA. Experts believe that the Finance minister will have to play it safe and not introduce any radical changes in the Budget. The UPA will be looking at appeasing the key sections of the voting community, therefore, one can expect vote-bank politics to greatly influence the annual budget this year.

By focusing on 3 macro objectives of inflation control, infrastructure and social development the Budget 2008-09 promises to sustain the GDP growth rate and make it inclusive for the middle and poor strata of the society. This is one of the rare occasions where the Finance Minister has the luxury of formulating welfare centered schemes against the backdrop of an economy with a growth rate of 9% ! The Budget is expected to give a thrust to education, health and water.

The past few days has generated a heated debate with the inflation rate growing steadily at 4.4%. But the FM says that all is well as the rate is well below the 5% level. The Petroleum industry wants the tax component on oil to be lowered from the existing 57% to a more reasonable level. If that can be achieved it will reduce the oil prices and thereby ease the pressure on inflation.

The Indian economy is mostly ridiculed for having infrastructure that does not meet World Standards. Addressing this problem Chidambaram has set aside US$500 billion for the development of infrastructure in the 11th Five Year plan (2007-12).

The “aam janta” and the corporates can heave a sigh of relief as Chidambaram has indicated at a significant change in the taxation system too. The Direct taxes could be reduced from the existing 33.6% inclusive of surcharge to about 25%-30%. It is believed that lowering of tax rates would induce people and organizations to be more open about their actual incomes. This in turn would improve the tax collections of the Government. There is also the whole debate about the effect of US recession on the Indian economy and how the Finance Minister would deal with it. The US recession has meant that the Indian rupee has greatly appreciated and the exporters are facing the brunt of it. In order to reduce the load off the exporters the RBI is expected to address this issue through its Monetary Policy.

The debate on the Budget can continue much beyond this article. But the basic purpose here was to inspire interest about the Budget among the youth. One thing to be kept in mind is that the Budget controls everything: be it the turnover of an MNC or the fate of a Government!

Anam Mittra

(2 votes, average: 4.5 out of 5)

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It is that time of the year again. The time when the joy and the happiness of the festive season slowly fades away into restless pacing and poring over long ledgers of seemingly meaningless numbers and figures. The time when every businessman is wondering what the government will announce. It’s the time for the Annual Budget. And this year might just prove to be different. India is making rapid strides on the path to being a developed nation. At least economically speaking. And with the world’s most powerful economy (the U.S.) in a bad shape, Mr. Chidambaran will be under tremendous pressure to deliver a sound yet viable budget. 

Here are some of my expectations for this year’s budget:

There is no doubt that India is gaining steadily as an independent economy. Thanks to the IT sector mainly, there is talk of us being among the superpowers within a few years. Hence it is very important for the government to announce a moderate budget that keeps our rate of growth constant and yet at the same time does not fail to remember the vital areas which still need to be addressed. The recent slump in the US economy and the steadily gaining rupee has left to a lot of IT firms groaning. Because they get most of their business from there and they are paid in US dollars, their revenue has been reduced drastically. As a result most of the tech giants are already beginning to cut losses by offloading employees. I would like some sort of provision in the budget that helps these companies to keep the revenue flowing. The IT sector is a very important one for our country – specially given our experience and our resources. If we are to make big strides it is important for us to be completely financially independent in this sector so that we can progress.

Last years saw some of the most violent controversies erupt over the SEZ’s allotted by the government -  Nandigram being one. It is important to realize that India is still largely an agrarian economy. It is not viable for the government to allot areas on prime fertile land meant for agriculture so that industries can be set up. Given the fast growing population that we have it does seem to be the best option. However the farmers should be more than amply compensated for their long term losses (and not just financially). I hope this year’s budget does look into this matter. Finally come the main areas where the budget has always allocated crores of rupees with nothing to show except revenue deficits. These areas include poverty alleviation and power generation among many more. These two are the main reasons why we are still termed as a developing nation. 

Poverty alleviation is a big term and a bigger ask. Many governments have tried and failed miserably to tackle this problem. Some have never gone beyond the announcing of grand schemes stage. It is important to try our best to cope with this for until every man is above the poverty line, we will never be able to fulfill all of our dreams. Power generation is another area which can prove to be very lucrative financially and economically. With a number of small and medium companies beginning to take interest in power generation, the government would do well to allocate funds to take care of this issue. This might prove to be profitable while at the same time help us in eradicating out power woes.

Every year we have our hopes and our dreams. Many remain that after the budget has been announced while others do come true. However this year I hope, with our economy in the state that it is in, Mr. Chidambaran will do his utmost best to try and tackle these issues among others.

Budhaditya Banerjee

(1 votes, average: 4 out of 5)

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The budget is the basic financial statement of India. It is comparable to a household budget, but in a larger sense. Like we decide how much we will spend for food, how much on eating out, how much will we need to pay the servants and how we will manage all this with our existing income? This is budget.

Under article 112 of the Constitution, a statement of estimated receipts and expenditure of the Government of India has to be laid before Parliament in respect of every financial year which runs from 1st April to 31st March. This Statement titled “Annual Financial Statement” is the main Budget document. 

The Annual Financial Statement shows the receipts and payments of Government Under the three parts in which Government accounts are kept: (i) Consolidated Fund, (ii) Contingency Fund and (iii) Public Account.

There are two kinds of budget. One is the railway budget and the other is the general budget. The railway budget precedes the general budget. All the departments have to give in their reports of their financial needs and keeping this in mind the budget is decided.

Once India attained its independence, the first budget was presented on November 26^th 1947 by India’s first finance minister Sir R.K. Shanmugham Chetty. Since then, 28 Union Finance Ministers have been presenting the budget every year. Initially, much attention was given to the agricultural sector but as later on, the focus shifted to the other sectors including the industrial, financial and other sectors.

There was a change in the approach which was led by Manmohan singh who was the Finance Minister under Mr. P.V. Narsimha Rao. He started the new phase of economic liberalization. The control of the Government over public sector units was reduced through disinvestment. The liberalization process which he had started still continues.

The Union budget of India is the general budget. The general budget is an Annual Financial Statement which is presented each year on the last day of February by the Finance Minister of India in Parliament. The budget comes into effect after it is passed by the House.

The rail budget which precedes the general budget brings about reforms in the railways. The Rail Budget highlights on the improvement in trains and routes. As per convention, the railway budget is presented by the Union Railway Minister in Parliament. The discussion is held on the policies and allocations are made in the budget, which is passed with a simple majority in the Lok Sabha. Since the railway budget is a part and parcel of the total receipts and expenditure of the Government of India hence it is also shown in the General Budget.

Anjuri Nayar

(1 votes, average: 1 out of 5)

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Cement stocks hit rock bottom when finance minister P. Chidambaran announced the differential excise duty structure, despite the tight demand -supply ratio, which is not expected to change for the next one year.  Though market experts rated the budget effect on the cement sector as neutral, the top five cement stocks which control 50% of the manufacturing capacity, corrected to a great extent and all long term investors who did not book their profits earlier on ended up making a loss on their investments. Like many other investors, I made a loss in Associated Cement Company Limited (Acc) which is the second largest cement company of India.

If we review the budget for the last 3-4 years, one can see that the treatment given to the cement sector has been topsy-turvy.

In 2004-05 the excise duty on cement was hiked by Rs.50 to Rs.400 per tonne. 

In 2005-06 the customs duty on cement was reduced from 15% to 20%. 

In 2006-07 the customs duty on cement was reduced from 15% to 12.5%. 

In 2007-08 a differential excise duty was levied on cement. A retail price of less than   Rs.190 per bag attracted an excise duty of rs.350/- per tonne while the same was jacked up to rs.600/-, if the retail price exceeded rs.190/- per bag.

Though the cement companies were allowed to pass on the increase in excise duty to the end users, the budget announcement sent across negative vibes to the foreign investors, who were more or less confused with the government policies.

The crux of the story is that the hike did not really make a difference to the profits of the top 5 companies (in descending order, Grasim Industries Limited, ACC, Ambuja Cement Ltd., India cement and B.K Birla’s Century Textiles and Industries Ltd)

But it had a marginally negative impact on the housing sector, as it increased the raw materials expenditure and unlike the cement sector, the big players in the housing sector were unable to pass on the increase to the end-users.

With the nation making progress at rapid a rate, any hike in steel or cement prices, henceforth, will cause a correction in the stock market. It will also cause a steep hike in the raw materials expenditure for the housing sector. It goes without saying that 

raw materials like cement and steel are the back-bone of our developing economy.

So, it is my humble request to our honorable finance minister to announce a budget favoring the raw materials, especially cement and steel. This will certainly increase the progress rate of our infrastructures. It will also boost the morale of the retail investors who are disillusioned by the bearish outlook of the stock market. 

I am optimistic about the budget for 2008-09. India shining looks like a realistic possibility.

Rajat J. Shetty

(No Ratings Yet)

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