Abhay Nidhi Sharma
Hailing from the ancient city of Meerut, Abhay works for a technology company but is also a talented writer who gives interesting takes on politics. Watch out for his political pieces.
After last week’s UP election results, while the whole of India discusses Congress’s loss and Yadav’s win, the Congress’s inner circle continues to look naive and clueless. For sure these results are disheartening and need a new perspective. But to revive the UPA, they need a political masterstroke. And the fall of Mayawati could just be that opportunity.
BSP is still the second largest party in U.P, far ahead of both BJP and Congress largely due to the Dalit vote bank of Mayawati. But there is footnote in Uttarakhand’s results that should give impetus to the Congress if it is willing. With only 3 seats in Uttarakhand, BSP might not seem a potent force but it could give a helping hand to the Congress.
The Congress should partner with the BSP to form a government in Uttarakhand and take the bold step of making Mayawati the CM of Uttarakhand. There you go, I said it. I am not a supporter of Mayawati but I will agree to be a bit inclined towards the Congress at the centre. That is more attributable to the fact that I can’t stand the Hindutva ideology. So I still want Congress to rule. And today, they have no better ally than Mayawati and her voters.
I believe that there will be no mid-term elections as no party will benefit from it. Even Anna Hazare will not gain from it. So we are looking towards 2014 and that is where Congress will need Mayawati’s support. Traditionally, Congress held the Dalit vote bank until BSP came along. So Congress needs to dismantle BSP piece by piece. For the moment, Congress needs to use BSP’s Dalit vote bank to return to power.
The politics of Uttarakhand and U.P are not that different. After all, they used to be one state. And Khanduri’s loss and Nishankh’s win suggests that Uttarahand voter is not too sensitive about the Corruption issue. Mayawati still has a huge rooting in U.P. People still accept that she brought about law and order to U.P. So naturally, she will bring the same to Uttarakhand as well.
For Congress, the more important gain will be at Centre. Trinamool and NCP are almost ready to jump off the ship. And this is where BSP’s Lok Sabha seats might help. Moreover, if I was Rahul Gandhi and wants to be a Game Changer, I would try and merge the BSP with the Congress. A bold idea for sure and not possible today, but 2-3 years and it could be achieved.
The idea is not obscure and unfounded as well. After 2009 Lok Sabha results, Congress did try to merge Ajit Singh’s RLD. They have successfully merged Chiranjeevi’s party. This in my opinion should be the strategy for the Congress i.e annihilate the regional parties who cut out the votes. In U.P, even something like the Peace Party needs to be merged to Congress.
So far, Rahul Gandhi’s approach seems either naive or uninformed. If he actually knew that Congress has no organisation in U.P to win it, then he is really daring. If he didn’t know, then that makes him, his sister and his mother, the whole Gandhi clan, most arrogant and out-of-touch. Never sail in a ship that has no lifeboats. And Rita Bahuguna Joshi and Dijvijay Singh are no lifeboats.
Gandhi family has charisma and popularity. But other than Sonia, nobody seems to know how to win seats. In U.P, they lost but they can’t even hope to win in the future if they use Rahul Gandhi’s approach. He cannot build roots when there are no trees. Instead he should use a parasitic approach. Thrive on someone else’s roots and somebody else’s genius. Mayawati knows her politics and she is the host that the Congress needs.
Just really think. On the counting day of U.P, SP came to power but not actually to the government. Still law and order in U.P has just gone downhill since that day. Akhilesh is already using the “conspiracy” card. It’s not just because the SP workers are rowdy, it’s just that Mayawati simply took her hand away from U.P’s Police. That shows the administrative rule of Mayawati.
Of course one will raise the question, how can Congress achieve the merger of BSP? Answer comes from the renowned Decision Theory, more specifically, using the “Loss Aversion Theory”. Try and avert another loss by using the current one into your favour. We know Mayawati is egotistical but thrives on power. At the same time, Mulayam still sees her as a threat. Her being in power in a neighbouring state will haunt SP more than a Mayawati sitting in the opposition. There is an obvious uncertainty that she will not abide by Congress’s rules but in Uttarakhand, she will only be in power as long as she abides by Congress’s rules.
Congress needs to understand that they need a new kind of political strategy to rule. Rolling heads after the U.P fiasco is too old and too useless a reaction and is unlikely to fix things. So is the use of “jumping MLAs”. While the whole of media is trying to call it the Age of Regional Parties, the future lies in dissolving these parties. And 2012 is the year it should start. Congress should play real politics by arm-twisting others not getting bogged down. NCP, BSP and DMK are standing on a sticky surface. Rather than fearing them, the Congress should stand up and use them instead.
The time for the Digvijay Singhs and Salman Khurshids of the world is over. Politics of caste and religion doesn’t rule anymore. If didn’t work in U.P and the Congress should bury that ideology under a tombstone. More than Rahul and Priyanka, Akhilesh looks like the real “ Game changer.” If Congress needs U.P to extend their rule, it surely can’t be done without dissolving SP and BSP. So is anyone in Congress listening, I hope Sonia listens more than Rahul Gandhi!
Abhay Nidhi Sharma
